Trump’s comments about D.C. crash could put pressure on NTSB

National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) institutionalists often refer to the agency as the gold standard of air accident investigations. 

But political analysts have voiced concern that President Trump’s decision to speculate on the cause of the Jan. 29 collision and resulting crash of an American Airlines-branded regional jet with an Army Black Hawk helicopter while the NTSB investigation was in its infancy has placed unaccustomed political pressure on the agency. 

“By weighing in so quickly without much in the way of evidence, and by politicizing the event, President Trump has already inserted himself in a process where he should not be and has complicated the work of the NTSB,” said Mark Jones, a Rice University political science professor, whose focus areas include the effect of political institutions on governance. 

The day after the Bombardier CRJ-700 collided with the army helicopter on approach to Reagan National Airport in Washington, killing all 67 people on the two aircraft, Trump speculated that diversity initiatives were to blame. 

“They have to be talented, naturally talented geniuses,” the president said of air traffic controllers. “You can’t have regular people doing that job.”

Trump acknowledged he had no evidence to support his claims that diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) policies played a part in the crash but said he was right to call them out because he has “common sense.” 

“There’s the potential that by weighing in and signaling his belief that DEI had something to do with it, there is at least a minor amount of pressure on the NTSB to look closer at that topic than it might otherwise look,” Jones said.

In addition, the highly unusual decision by a U.S. president to get ahead of NTSB investigators could portend institutional challenges for the agency, said David Clark, a Vanderbilt University political science professor who has written about the connection between politicization and agency performance.

“The immediate concern here is what happens if NTSB does this report and it turns out that something happened that contravenes the president’s statements and then the president criticizes them,” he said. “Does their budget request then get scrutinized more in the next cycle? Do members of Congress publicly criticize NTSB in ways that make it hard for them to do their job?”

The NTSB is run by a board of five directors serving five-year terms that overlap presidential administrations. They are appointed by the president and confirmed by the Senate. 

Clark noted that Trump has already dismissed two members of the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission and one member of the National Labor Relations Board, both of which also have historically been independent, bipartisan agencies with overlapping board terms. 

The NTSB also enjoys funding independence from the White House, making budget requests directly to Congress. However, Clark said that wouldn’t shield the agency from allies of the president in Congress. 

In updates about the D.C. crash, NTSB leaders have forcefully stated that they will follow the facts in this investigation, just as they do in all others. The agency investigated 1,205 accidents last year, board member J. Todd Inman said. “We will help find out what happened. We will do it factually. We will do it accurately,” he said.

When asked whether it hurts the investigative process to have the president suggesting causes, NTSB chair Jennifer Homendy answered indirectly. 

“With all due respect, I think the press also likes to state what probable cause is before we get to the probable cause,” she said. 

But not everyone with NTSB ties has deferred from weighing in. In an interview with British public broadcaster Channel 4, Peter Goelz, an NTSB managing director during the late 1990s, called Trump’s remarks “appalling.” 

“The American safety system, which was considered the gold standard worldwide, was built on independent, unbiased investigations over 40 or 50 years,” Goelz said. “He started to dismantle that in 50 minutes.” 

Clark said there’s precedent for Trump directly intervening in the workings of an agency dealing with a disaster. In 2019, Trump incorrectly stated that Alabama was in the path of Hurricane Dorian. When the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) corrected the record, Trump doubled down, going so far as to show a storm track map altered with a Sharpie to back his position. 

Eventually, NOAA published an unsigned statement supporting Trump’s initial claim. 

Investigations into the incident, known as Sharpiegate, later rebuked then acting-NOAA director Neil Jacobs for undercutting public trust and violating the agency’s code of ethics. 

Trump has nominated Jacobs to head NOAA in his second term. 

“In general, NTSB has not been on any president’s radar per se,” Clark said. “It has been an apolitical, expertise-driven agency, but that could change. We’ve seen that change in other places.”