U.S. – Canada travel is down but not nearly like the headlines suggested. And while industry insiders have been chattering about a decline in passenger bookings going into the summer, new data from aviation analytics company Cirium suggests things are actually looking pretty good.
Memorial Day Weekend bookings made between the end of January and mid-May are actually up 6% year-over year when looking at the Thursday-Monday of the 2024 and 2025 holidays.
| Destination City | % Change |
| Orlando | 7.51% |
| San Diego | 4.53% |
| Minneapolis | -5.51% |
| Houston | 4.12% |
| Miami | 9.92% |
| Newark | -9.97% |
| San Francisco | 11.58% |
| Seattle | 1.48% |
| San Juan | 10.18% |
| JFK | 20.07% |
| Chicago | 11.10% |
| Ft. Lauderdale | 1.70% |
| Phoenix | 4.24% |
| Washington | 0.40% |
| Austin | 11.83% |
| Dallas | 12.36% |
| LaGuardia | 7.45% |
| Boston | 10.14% |
| Denver | -4.83% |
| Los Angeles | 5.85% |
| Atlanta | 6.49% |
The data here is somewhat limited. It’s not looking at direct airline bookings. Instead, travel agency bookings are more measurable. And some airlines do not sell through third parties, so their bookings aren’t part of the analysis at all. It’s also only looking at certain cities. But the data is certainly suggestive that Memorial Day air travel is strong and even up year-over-year.
The airlines have had a great deal of uncertainty in the face of tariffs that are likely to slow economic activity, slow travel, and drive up the price of planes and parts. But as those have been pushed off, equity markets have recovered (though there are still warning signs in bond markets) and the likelihood of recession has scale back a bit.
So while we’re coming out of an earnings season where airlines withdrew their guidance for the second quarter, we’re likely to see some weakness – but people are still out there traveling, at least over peak leisure periods. Memorial Day bookings won’t tell us much about business travel.
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